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Broadband Access: Opportunities & Market Forecasts 2001-2005

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

1.0 Executive Summary

1.1 Broadband Outlook Remains Bright 1-1

1.2 DSL Gains Market Share 1-4

1.3 Upstart Access Providers Struggle 1-5

1.4 Satellites Extend Broadband Coverage 1-6

1.5 New Applications are Critical 1-7

1.6 Voice Over Broadband Delayed 1-9

1.7 Broadband Transforms Communications Industry 1-10

1.8 Scope and Methodology 1-11

2.0 Introduction

2.1 New Applications Needed for Sustained Growth 2-1

Consumer Market Demand 2-1

Business Market Demand 2-4

2.2 Deployment Challenges Moderate Growth 2-6

2.3 Competing Technologies Vie for Dominance 2-8

Cable Modems Retain Lead Among Consumers 2-8

DSL Deployments Accelerate 2-9

Fixed Wireless Stumbles 2-10

Satellites Extend Broadband Coverage 2-11

Optical Fiber to Play an Important Long-Term Role 2-13

2.4 Voice over Broadband Coming Slowly 2-15

2.5 Residential Revenues Surpass Commercial Revenues 2-17

3.0 Broadband Applications

3.1 Web Surfing 3-3

3.2 Web Hosting 3-4

3.3 Telecommuting / Home Office 3-5

3.4 Shopping 3-7

3.5 Electronic Commerce 3-8

3.6 Education 3-9

3.7 Adult Entertainment 3-10

3.8 Gaming / Gambling 3-11

3.9 Telephony 3-13

3.10 Videoconferencing 3-14

3.11 Internet Broadcasting 3-15

3.12 Application Service Providers 3-19

 

4.0 Cable Modems

4.1 Cable-Modem Technology Overview 4-1

4.2 Cable-Modem Regulatory Developments 4-3

4.3 Cable-Modem Standards Progress 4-7

4.4 Cable-Modem Advantages 4-11

Supplier Benefits 4-11

End-User Benefits 4-12

4.5 Cable-Modem Limitations 4-13

4.6 Cable-Modem Economics 4-15

4.7 Voice Over Cable 4-17

4.8 Cable-Modem Deployment Status 4-21

4.9 Cable-Modem Outlook 4-23

5.0 Digital Subscriber Lines

5.1 DSL Technology Overview 5-1

5.2 DSL Regulatory Developments 5-5

5.3 DSL Standards Progress 5-10

5.4 DSL Advantages 5-14

Supplier Benefits 5-14

End-User Benefits 5-15

5.5 DSL Limitations 5-16

5.6 DSL Economics 5-19

DSL Costs 5-19

DSL Revenues 5-22

5.7 Voice Over DSL 5-25

5.7 DSL Deployment Status 5-27

Data-Oriented CLEC Deployments 5-27

ILEC Deployments 5-29

5.8 DSL Outlook 5-30

Residential Outlook 5-30

Business Outlook 5-34

6.0 Fixed Wireless

6.1 39 GHz 6-3

39 GHz Technology Overview 6-3

39 GHz Regulatory Developments 6-5

39 GHz Standards Progress 6-7

39 GHz Advantages 6-8

39 GHz Limitations 6-9

39 GHz Economics 6-10

39 GHz Deployment Status 6-11

39 GHz Outlook 6-12

 

6.2 Digital Electronic Message Service (DEMS) 6-14

DEMS Technology Overview 6-14

DEMS Regulatory Developments 6-15

DEMS Standards Progress 6-16

DEMS Advantages 6-17

DEMS Limitations 6-17

DEMS Economics 6-18

DEMS Deployment Status 6-19

DEMS Outlook 6-20

6.3 Local Multipoint Distribution Service (LMDS) 6-21

LMDS Technology Overview 6-21

LMDS Regulatory Developments 6-21

LMDS Standards Progress 6-23

LMDS Advantages 6-25

LMDS Limitations 6-26

LMDS Economics 6-27

LMDS Deployment Status 6-28

LMDS Outlook 6-30

6.4 Multipoint Distribution Service (MDS) 6-31

MDS Technology Overview 6-31

MDS Regulatory Developments 6-33

MDS Standards Progress 6-35

MDS Advantages 6-38

MDS Limitations 6-38

MDS Economics 6-41

MDS Deployment Status 6-43

MDS Outlook 6-44

7.0 Satellite Services

7.1 Satellite Technology Overview 7-1

7.2 Satellite Regulatory Developments 7-4

ITU Rules 7-4

FCC Rules 7-5

7.3 Satellite Standards Progress 7-7

7.4 Satellite Advantages 7-9

7.5 Satellite Limitations 7-10

7.6 Satellite Economics 7-12

7.7 Satellite Deployment Status 7-14

DirecPC 7-15

StarBand Communications 7-16

SpaceWay 7-18

EchoStar Communications 7-19

WildBlue Communications 7-20

Teledesic 7-21

Astrolink Technologies 7-22

SkyBridge 7-24

7.8 Satellite Outlook 7-25

8.0 3G Cellular / Personal Communications Services (PCS)

8.1 3G Cellular Technology Overview 8-1

8.2 3G Cellular Regulatory Developments 8-3

8.3 3G Cellular Standards Progress 8-6

8.4 3G Cellular Advantages 8-11

8.5 3G Cellular Limitations 8-12

8.6 3G Cellular Economics 8-13

8.7 3G Cellular Deployment Status 8-17

8.8 3G Cellular Outlook 8-20

9.0 Residential Market Forecasts

9.1 Customer Requirements 9-1

9.2 Market Inhibitors 9-2

9.3 Market Accelerators 9-3

9.4 Market Potential 9-3

9.5 U.S. Residential Broadband Subscribers 9-8

9.6 Single Family & Multi-Dwelling Unit Segments 9-11

Single-Family Dwellings 9-13

Multi-Family Dwellings 9-14

9.7 Market Forecasts by Technology 9-14

Cable Modem 9-14

DSL 9-17

Wireless 9-19

Satellite 9-21

9.8 Overall Residential Broadband Market Forecasts 9-23

10.0 Commercial Market Forecasts

10.1 Customer Requirements 10-1

10.2 Market Inhibitors 10-2

10.3 Market Accelerators 10-3

10.4 Market Potential 10-4

10.5 Multi-Tenant Buildings and Industry Segments 10-16

10.6 Market Forecasts by Technology 10-18

DSL 10-18

Wireless 10-20

Cable Modem 10-23

Satellite 10-25

10.7 Overall Commercial Broadband Market Forecasts 10-26

 

LIST OF FIGURES

 

Figure

1a U.S. Broadband Access Revenues 2001-2005 1-3

2a U.S. Broadband Households with Cable Modems,

DSL and Wireless / Satellite 2001-2005 2-3

2b U.S. Broadband Commercial Establishments with Cable Modems,

DSL & Wireless / Satellite 2001-2005 2-5

2c Residential and Commercial Revenues for

U.S. Broadband Services 2001-2005 2-18

2d Share of Overall Broadband Revenues by Technology – 2005 2-20

3a Internet Applications Among Adult Home Users 3-2

8a U.S. Mobile Phone Subscriber Share by Technology 2000 8-7

9a Residential PC and Internet Use by Annual Income 9-5

9b PC and Internet Use by Age of Householder 9-6

9c U.S. Broadband Households 2001-2005 9-24

10a Primary Rate ISDN Interfaces 1996-2000 10-5

10b ILECs’ DS1 and DS3 Circuits using Optical Fiber

Terminating at Customers’ Premises 1996-2000 10-13

10c U.S. Commercial Establishments with

Broadband Data Services via Optical Fiber 2001-2005 10-15

10d U.S. Commercial Establishments with Broadband Services via

DSL, Cable Modems, Wireless or Satellite 2001-2005 10-27

 

 

LIST OF TABLES

Table

4a Cable TV and DBS Subscribers 1996 - 2000 4-21

5a DSL Transmission Speeds and Ranges 5-2

6a 39 GHz Auction Results 6-6

6b Major MDS Acquisitions by IXCs 6-46

7a Ka-Band Licenses - Round 1 7-5

7b Ka-Band Licenses – Round 2 7-6

8a 3G Cellular Licensing Worldwide 8-18

9a Annual Income by Age of Householder 9-7

9b U.S. Residential Broadband Market Potential by Annual Income 9-9

9c Annual Income by Population Density 9-11

9d Type of Housing by Annual Household Income 9-12

9e Type of Housing by Population Density 9-13

9f Cable-Modem Broadband Services:

U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-16

9g DSL Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-18

9h Wireless Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-20

9i Satellite Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-22

9j Combined Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2000-2005 9-26

10a Personal Computers in Commercial Buildings 10-7

10b Commercial Buildings by Employees and Function 10-8

10c Computers per Worker by Principal Building Activity 10-9

10d Commercial Broadband Services: U.S. Market Potential 2001-2005 10-11

10e Personal Computers in Multi-Tenant Commercial Buildings 10-16

10f Establishments in Commercial Buildings by Function 10-17

10g DSL Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-19

10h Wireless Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-22

10i Cable-Modem Broadband Services:

U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-24

10j Satellite Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-25

10k Combined Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-28

 

 


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