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Broadband Access: Opportunities & Market Forecasts 2001-2005TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 Executive Summary 1.1 Broadband Outlook Remains Bright 1-1 1.2 DSL Gains Market Share 1-4 1.3 Upstart Access Providers Struggle 1-5 1.4 Satellites Extend Broadband Coverage 1-6 1.5 New Applications are Critical 1-7 1.6 Voice Over Broadband Delayed 1-9 1.7 Broadband Transforms Communications Industry 1-10 1.8 Scope and Methodology 1-11 2.0 Introduction 2.1 New Applications Needed for Sustained Growth 2-1 Consumer Market Demand 2-1 Business Market Demand 2-4 2.2 Deployment Challenges Moderate Growth 2-6 2.3 Competing Technologies Vie for Dominance 2-8 Cable Modems Retain Lead Among Consumers 2-8 DSL Deployments Accelerate 2-9 Fixed Wireless Stumbles 2-10 Satellites Extend Broadband Coverage 2-11 Optical Fiber to Play an Important Long-Term Role 2-13 2.4 Voice over Broadband Coming Slowly 2-15 2.5 Residential Revenues Surpass Commercial Revenues 2-17
3.0 Broadband Applications 3.1 Web Surfing 3-3 3.2 Web Hosting 3-4 3.3 Telecommuting / Home Office 3-5 3.4 Shopping 3-7 3.5 Electronic Commerce 3-8 3.6 Education 3-9 3.7 Adult Entertainment 3-10 3.8 Gaming / Gambling 3-11 3.9 Telephony 3-13 3.10 Videoconferencing 3-14 3.11 Internet Broadcasting 3-15 3.12 Application Service Providers 3-19
4.0 Cable Modems 4.1 Cable-Modem Technology Overview 4-1 4.2 Cable-Modem Regulatory Developments 4-3 4.3 Cable-Modem Standards Progress 4-7 4.4 Cable-Modem Advantages 4-11 Supplier Benefits 4-11 End-User Benefits 4-12 4.5 Cable-Modem Limitations 4-13 4.6 Cable-Modem Economics 4-15 4.7 Voice Over Cable 4-17 4.8 Cable-Modem Deployment Status 4-21 4.9 Cable-Modem Outlook 4-23 5.0 Digital Subscriber Lines 5.1 DSL Technology Overview 5-1 5.2 DSL Regulatory Developments 5-5 5.3 DSL Standards Progress 5-10 5.4 DSL Advantages 5-14 Supplier Benefits 5-14 End-User Benefits 5-15 5.5 DSL Limitations 5-16 5.6 DSL Economics 5-19 DSL Costs 5-19 DSL Revenues 5-22 5.7 Voice Over DSL 5-25 5.7 DSL Deployment Status 5-27 Data-Oriented CLEC Deployments 5-27 ILEC Deployments 5-29 5.8 DSL Outlook 5-30 Residential Outlook 5-30 Business Outlook 5-34 6.0 Fixed Wireless 6.1 39 GHz 6-3 39 GHz Technology Overview 6-3 39 GHz Regulatory Developments 6-5 39 GHz Standards Progress 6-7 39 GHz Advantages 6-8 39 GHz Limitations 6-9 39 GHz Economics 6-10 39 GHz Deployment Status 6-11 39 GHz Outlook 6-12
6.2 Digital Electronic Message Service (DEMS) 6-14 DEMS Technology Overview 6-14 DEMS Regulatory Developments 6-15 DEMS Standards Progress 6-16 DEMS Advantages 6-17 DEMS Limitations 6-17 DEMS Economics 6-18 DEMS Deployment Status 6-19 DEMS Outlook 6-20 6.3 Local Multipoint Distribution Service (LMDS) 6-21 LMDS Technology Overview 6-21 LMDS Regulatory Developments 6-21 LMDS Standards Progress 6-23 LMDS Advantages 6-25 LMDS Limitations 6-26 LMDS Economics 6-27 LMDS Deployment Status 6-28 LMDS Outlook 6-30 6.4 Multipoint Distribution Service (MDS) 6-31 MDS Technology Overview 6-31 MDS Regulatory Developments 6-33 MDS Standards Progress 6-35 MDS Advantages 6-38 MDS Limitations 6-38 MDS Economics 6-41 MDS Deployment Status 6-43 MDS Outlook 6-44 7.0 Satellite Services 7.1 Satellite Technology Overview 7-1 7.2 Satellite Regulatory Developments 7-4 ITU Rules 7-4 FCC Rules 7-5 7.3 Satellite Standards Progress 7-7 7.4 Satellite Advantages 7-9 7.5 Satellite Limitations 7-10 7.6 Satellite Economics 7-12 7.7 Satellite Deployment Status 7-14 DirecPC 7-15 StarBand Communications 7-16 SpaceWay 7-18 EchoStar Communications 7-19 WildBlue Communications 7-20 Teledesic 7-21 Astrolink Technologies 7-22 SkyBridge 7-24 7.8 Satellite Outlook 7-25 8.0 3G Cellular / Personal Communications Services (PCS) 8.1 3G Cellular Technology Overview 8-1 8.2 3G Cellular Regulatory Developments 8-3 8.3 3G Cellular Standards Progress 8-6 8.4 3G Cellular Advantages 8-11 8.5 3G Cellular Limitations 8-12 8.6 3G Cellular Economics 8-13 8.7 3G Cellular Deployment Status 8-17 8.8 3G Cellular Outlook 8-20 9.0 Residential Market Forecasts 9.1 Customer Requirements 9-1 9.2 Market Inhibitors 9-2 9.3 Market Accelerators 9-3 9.4 Market Potential 9-3 9.5 U.S. Residential Broadband Subscribers 9-8 9.6 Single Family & Multi-Dwelling Unit Segments 9-11 Single-Family Dwellings 9-13 Multi-Family Dwellings 9-14 9.7 Market Forecasts by Technology 9-14 Cable Modem 9-14 DSL 9-17 Wireless 9-19 Satellite 9-21 9.8 Overall Residential Broadband Market Forecasts 9-23 10.0 Commercial Market Forecasts 10.1 Customer Requirements 10-1 10.2 Market Inhibitors 10-2 10.3 Market Accelerators 10-3 10.4 Market Potential 10-4 10.5 Multi-Tenant Buildings and Industry Segments 10-16 10.6 Market Forecasts by Technology 10-18 DSL 10-18 Wireless 10-20 Cable Modem 10-23 Satellite 10-25 10.7 Overall Commercial Broadband Market Forecasts 10-26
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1a U.S. Broadband Access Revenues 2001-2005 1-3 2a U.S. Broadband Households with Cable Modems, DSL and Wireless / Satellite 2001-2005 2-3 2b U.S. Broadband Commercial Establishments with Cable Modems, DSL & Wireless / Satellite 2001-2005 2-5 2c Residential and Commercial Revenues for U.S. Broadband Services 2001-2005 2-18 2d Share of Overall Broadband Revenues by Technology – 2005 2-20 3a Internet Applications Among Adult Home Users 3-2 8a U.S. Mobile Phone Subscriber Share by Technology 2000 8-7 9a Residential PC and Internet Use by Annual Income 9-5 9b PC and Internet Use by Age of Householder 9-6 9c U.S. Broadband Households 2001-2005 9-24 10a Primary Rate ISDN Interfaces 1996-2000 10-5 10b ILECs’ DS1 and DS3 Circuits using Optical Fiber Terminating at Customers’ Premises 1996-2000 10-13 10c U.S. Commercial Establishments with Broadband Data Services via Optical Fiber 2001-2005 10-15 10d U.S. Commercial Establishments with Broadband Services via DSL, Cable Modems, Wireless or Satellite 2001-2005 10-27
LIST OF TABLES Table 4a Cable TV and DBS Subscribers 1996 - 2000 4-21 5a DSL Transmission Speeds and Ranges 5-2 6a 39 GHz Auction Results 6-6 6b Major MDS Acquisitions by IXCs 6-46 7a Ka-Band Licenses - Round 1 7-5 7b Ka-Band Licenses – Round 2 7-6 8a 3G Cellular Licensing Worldwide 8-18 9a Annual Income by Age of Householder 9-7 9b U.S. Residential Broadband Market Potential by Annual Income 9-9 9c Annual Income by Population Density 9-11 9d Type of Housing by Annual Household Income 9-12 9e Type of Housing by Population Density 9-13 9f Cable-Modem Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-16 9g DSL Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-18 9h Wireless Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-20 9i Satellite Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2001-2005 9-22 9j Combined Broadband Services: U.S. Residential Market Forecasts 2000-2005 9-26 10a Personal Computers in Commercial Buildings 10-7 10b Commercial Buildings by Employees and Function 10-8 10c Computers per Worker by Principal Building Activity 10-9 10d Commercial Broadband Services: U.S. Market Potential 2001-2005 10-11 10e Personal Computers in Multi-Tenant Commercial Buildings 10-16 10f Establishments in Commercial Buildings by Function 10-17 10g DSL Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-19 10h Wireless Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-22 10i Cable-Modem Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-24 10j Satellite Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-25 10k Combined Broadband Services: U.S. Commercial Market Forecasts 2001-2005 10-28
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